Security & Military Analysis
Dr Mills’ doctoral studies focused on the relationship between South African security and regional foreign policy. As a consequence, the early part of his career concentrated on the integration process that led to the creation of the South African National Defence Force, during which time he co-authored four studies on maritime and naval policy with Professor Martin Edmonds, the pair also co-hosting the first-ever public gathering between the then SA Defence Force and Umkhonto we Sizwe in Cape Town in 1993.
He subsequently volunteered for four deployments with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan between 2006-12 as the Commander’s adviser, first to General (now Lord) David Richards, and on subsequent occasions with General Sir Nick Carter. He additionally worked in the Arg as President Ashraf Ghani’s guest, advising on policy between January and July 2021, a period which led to the production of The Ledger, which reviewed the failure of the international intervention, and the earlier Asian Roundabout documentary in an attempt to forestall the imminent collapse.
‘Plaudits for Drs Greg Mills and David Kilcullen’s ‘The Ledger – Accounting for Failure in Afghanistan’ (Hurst, 2021), are justified. The Telegraph’s ‘Best Book of the Year 2022’, The Ledger is, indeed, ‘a clear-eyed analysis’ by two insiders on how the war in Afghanistan ‘was lost when it could have been won’ (Sunday Times). As General Mohammad Yasin Zia, former Chief of the General Staff in Afghanistan, says of Mills and Kilcullen’s book, ‘This explanation of the failure of the international mission and fall of Kabul contains salient lessons for us all, now and in the future.’ The former Chief of the Defence Staff in the UK, General Sir Nick Carter, is equally warm in his praise: ‘What went wrong and what went right in Afghanistan? This brilliant analysis by two people who were there has many of the answers.’
Major General Rob Thomson, Oxford House
Inbetween these deployments, in an effort to understand how better to balance external assistance with local agency, a key failure of many well-intentioned aid projects, he spent time in Colombia, first in 2006 interviewing several former presidents and current officials and military commanders, which led to several long-term projects: first, to write an account of the security turnaround which was entitled A Great Perhaps?, and second to facilitate lessons learned exchanges between African and Colombian officials, which ultimately centred on arranging an exchange between Colombian military leadership and President Buhari’s administration in Nigeria in assisting conceptually in its efforts to fight Boko Haram and reshape the political economy in favour of the relatively dispossessed north-east region.
‘This book not only explains the steps the Colombian government has taken in its search for peace and prosperity, but highlights the areas where international cooperation can extend this model and its success. … I recommend it to all engaged in what I see as the responsibility of my generation: ending conflict, ensuring stability and promoting development.’
Olusegun Obasanjo, Former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
‘We have enjoyed a long and productive association since our first meeting in Colombia in December 2006, when you came to understand how Colombia had successfully moved from being, virtually, a failed state through PLAN Colombia during my presidency to make war to achieve peace. I recall that you were searching for answers in the light of your own Afghanistan and other African experiences, and I am glad that you were able to put these learnings to good use, not least in ‘A Great Perhaps’, which you were able to compile with several other partners including our mutual friend Juan-Carlos Pinzon.’
President Andrés Pastrana, Colombia, 20 May 2025
More recently, Dr Mills has led a dozen visits by African delegations to Ukraine for two strategic reasons: First, the inescapable fact that this is so far the most dangerous and impactful conventional military engagement of this century. Without understanding it and being able to talk intelligently about it, there can be no serious security advice. This includes high-level engagement with defence and political figures to understand strategy and tactical engagements with units on the ground to understand the unfolding battlefield. This knowledge has translated into advice to several African countries.
The second is the fact that the Russia-Ukraine conflict runs along the same fault-line that defines the 21st century: The battle between democratic, open, rules-based methods of organising society and the authoritarian model. In short, there can be no serious engagement on security, democracy or the future in Africa without a thorough understanding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its consequences.
‘I spent time with Greg in Ukraine in 2022, when he offered to organise a visit for me with very limited notice just before Christmas. We skidded and slid our way through icy tracks and roads across the country, visiting sight after sight, where horror and desperation were offset by the notable stoicism of the Ukrainian people. All the while, Greg kept us entertained, managing complex logistics while setting up meetings. He contributed to my comments on the war at Midnight Mass that year, which he and Janet attended at St George’s Cathedral in Cape Town. At the same time, he produced a documentary on the visit, all of this at once an exercise in multitasking.’
Archbishop Thabo Makgoba, May 2025
‘The world is drowning in blood – Westerners, wake up’
Complacency and naïveté among our leaders will cost us dearly, argue specialists David Kilcullen and Greg Mills in their detailed new book. [I]t’s vital that our leaders have an understanding of how conflicts develop, as well as the most effective means of resolving them. Such issues are examined in exhaustive detail by David Kilcullen and Greg Mills in their well-researched new book, The Art of War and Peace. The pair have decades of experience as policy advisers in conflicts as far apart as Afghanistan, Iraq and Colombia; as such, they’re well-placed to provide a detailed analysis of the nature of modern war, from large-scale, high-intensity, state-on-state conflicts to irregular, low-intensity, smaller wars…. By far the most important conclusion to be drawn from this excellent study, then, is a broad and philosophical one: that the West can no longer afford to ignore the challenges presented by the changing nature of modern warfare. We must instead prepare – just as we did during the Cold War – to defend our liberty.
Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor, The Daily Telegraph, 26 June 2025