Colombia: The damage assessment of a bad peace agreement

During the 1990s, Colombia was a failed state, dominated by drug cartels and plagued by the violence of guerrilla and paramilitary groups. Although the situation seemed to change radically in the early 21st century thanks to measures implemented by the governments of Andrés Pastrana and Álvaro Uribe, today the country is once again suffering from the scourge of organized crime and drug trafficking. Since the signing of the peace agreement with the FARC in 2016, the country's security situation has deteriorated considerably, and Gustavo Petro's promise of "Total Peace" has come to nothing.

The security successes of Álvaro Uribe's government have kept his image relevant in Colombian politics, where he acts as a de facto leader of the opposition. The achievements of his administration, such as the military operations against the FARC that resulted in the release of prisoners and the reduction of coca cultivation throughout the country, still resonate within Colombian society. These significant advances were only possible thanks to the groundwork laid by his predecessor, Andrés Pastrana, who, together with Bill Clinton, designed a $10.6 billion cooperation plan that financed state restructuring and the fight against drugs and terrorism in the following years.

Around 2010, Colombia seemed a different country from the one dominated by guerrillas and drug cartels in the late 20th century. The military pressure exerted on the FARC suggested the viability of a new peace process that would definitively free Colombia from violence. Despite the political efforts made by Andrés Pastrana and Álvaro Uribe to reach a political agreement for the FARC's demobilization, these efforts never came to fruition.

The arrival of Juan Manuel Santos at the Casa de Nariño breathed new life into the search for peace. The agreement signed in 2016 seemed to open the door to a new chapter in the country's history. However, nine years later, the negative effects of that agreement are becoming apparent. According to General Jorge Luis Vargas, former director of police intelligence, President Santos "wanted a plebiscite to ensure legitimacy, but at the risk of dividing the country. We (in intelligence) recommended that he not hold the referendum." After almost a decade, Colombia is now a polarized country on the verge of an electoral process that got off to a bad start following the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe.

Following that peace agreement, the government put an end to the counterinsurgency policies and the strengthening of the security apparatus that had restored security and prosperity to the country during the first decade of the century. For example, in 2013 the area under coca cultivation had been reduced to 40,000 hectares. Today, it has reached 270,000 hectares, once again making the country the world's leading producer of cocaine. In this regard, former Vice President Francisco Santos indicates that the stability created by Plan Colombia was dismantled by the peace process, first, with the abandonment of the coca eradication policy during Juan Manuel Santos's administration, and then with the reduction of the security agencies' capabilities.

Now, with the country's security having deteriorated significantly under Gustavo Petro's administration and the United States having withdrawn Colombia's certification as a country combating drug trafficking, the 2026 elections represent an opportunity to rebuild the country's credibility. However, another victory for the ruling party would consolidate the left-wing populism of Gustavo Petro, who, in recent months, has expressed support for the Colombian Armed Forces cooperating with the Venezuelan dictatorship.

In the words of former Vice President Francisco Santos, the goal must be to avoid "the Mexicanization of Colombia," and he points to the responsibility of center-right politicians, who must set aside their egos and prevent Colombia from becoming "a pseudo-democracy in the image of Nicolás Maduro's Venezuela." Similarly, former President Andrés Pastrana notes: "If you want to understand what is happening in Colombia, you have to listen to the Venezuelans. They come from the future."

Written by Dr Greg Mills and Juan Diego Molina for La Razór.